tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post184686466022923729..comments2024-02-25T02:24:14.972-08:00Comments on Whole Health Source: Carbohydrate, Sugar, and Obesity in AmericaStephan Guyenethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09218114625524777250noreply@blogger.comBlogger72125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-8535533601590851772016-08-31T06:33:05.130-07:002016-08-31T06:33:05.130-07:00SamAbroad, I would be really interested to hear wh...SamAbroad, I would be really interested to hear what your diet looked like as I have experienced almost identical problems after following a low carb diet.<br />Many thanks<br />Lizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13290844827977377565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-91090241853317102282016-08-20T13:26:27.045-07:002016-08-20T13:26:27.045-07:00The problem with such a representation of the &quo...The problem with such a representation of the "reality" is that on the left Y axis from bottom to the top, there is a 60% difference in the scale. On the right side, there is a 300% diference from the bottom to the top in the scale. There triggers an illusion or an exageration of the differences on the right that makes it look like a 50% difference in carb 40 to 20 while it is only a 10%, 105g to 95g difference between the highest consumption of sugar to the end of the data. So what that means is that all in all, a 10% reduction in sugar consumption is not enough to reverse the trend. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05659198350251065643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-43105477954380476702016-07-07T22:48:55.162-07:002016-07-07T22:48:55.162-07:00Dr Gerry, of course I agree that we have this spli...Dr Gerry, of course I agree that we have this split as well. But just going low carb does not reduce obtained insulin resistance although progress to obesity/diabetes-2 can be greatly slowed. Every year of junk food adds "so much" insulin resistance that accumulates as interest on interest and damage in proportion to current progress. Even telomere lengths shorten as insulin resistance increases. <br />Intermittent Fasting (IF) can reduce insulin resistance, call it "Pay off part of the principal each fasting session"Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485075801604191544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-43194305295563349012016-07-07T03:08:13.020-07:002016-07-07T03:08:13.020-07:00There are 2 separate populations merged in this gr...There are 2 separate populations merged in this graph of the total US population. The low carb movement has gained traction and started to decrease the total population average carb intake. Meanwhile the average Joe exposed to the same junk food as always continues to eat it and get fatter. Split the populations into low carb advocates and average Joes and see what the obesity figures look like.Dr Gerryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07503081138484361767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-2976140011231073202016-06-23T05:05:13.718-07:002016-06-23T05:05:13.718-07:00Hi Stephan, interesting data. With heart disease a...Hi Stephan, interesting data. With heart disease and being pre-diabetic I switched to low carb end 2011. I dropped around 6 kgs but hit plateau after 6 months. 4 years later I would still gain weight as soon as I ate more carbs or more food. Minor angina remained like wrists tightening up soon on exercise.<br />My problem I think is same problem that I see in your data. Delayed effects. <br />Eating lots of sugar and carbs for years builds up an insulin resistance that usually is lifelong. This is why we see many more big bellies on people being 50,60,70 today than before. And many of us are trying to limit food intake and exercise but the insulin resistance built up for years pulls the wrong way. Nobody wants to freeze or be miserable by cutting calories. Result is that obesity is increasing in spite of lower sugar consumption, although now with some wiggles showing on the graph as it represent all ages combined. <br />By intermittent fasting - in my case 3 weeks of fasting 5 days every week and eating normal (weekends) I lost 9 kgs, and lower belly measure and it seems to be staying off. That is two months ago and I am still at new lower weight, 83 from 92 kgs, 2 months later. I plan to hit 77 kgs later this summer. My key gain is however that my heart disease symptoms (wrist pain after walking 3-400 meters) disappeared after 2 fasting weeks and has not come back once since. It brings up a different aspect of insulin, as my calcium score scans has shown calcification in heart blood vessels before and also two years ago. You surely read of/ recall the widely reported test animal in the 1930's with a forgotten insulin drip and calcified veins, all downstream of drip insertion point. After my improvement I believe that fasting insulin (or average insulin) at a certain (not established) level have no effect at all on blood vessel calcifications. But higher levels cause increased deposits the test animal showed and lower levels as in my case, may cause a reduction of existing deposits. <br />The latter probably through a different hormone/mechanism that may be dwarfed by too much insulin, the balance determining net outcome. I measured fasting insulin a few years ago, then 7 and I am booked in for tests now again. Also I will have a new calcium score scan shortly. Back to obesity, I gather my point was made clear above. Almost every person that became insulin resistant pre-diabetic before 2000 would today go on to increase marginal overweight to obesity unless much reduced calorie intake, exercise and hardship as it is near impossible to turn off well established insulin resistance by dieting. It is all down to past sugar consumption or too much carbs/insulinogenic foods over too long time. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485075801604191544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-8788950960476535692016-04-10T18:16:44.342-07:002016-04-10T18:16:44.342-07:00Hi intectus,
That is based on NHANES data, which ...Hi intectus,<br /><br />That is based on NHANES data, which are self-reported. Self-reported diet data are inaccurate. <br /><br />I generally rely on USDA Economic Research Service food disappearance data. They have their own limitations, but they don't suffer from self-report bias and I generally view them as more accurate, particularly for illustrating trends.Stephan Guyenethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09218114625524777250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-26766504627352777582016-04-09T14:10:48.061-07:002016-04-09T14:10:48.061-07:00Hi Stephan,
Very interesting post! I sent these g...Hi Stephan, <br />Very interesting post! I sent these graphs to Nina Teicholz. I think she thought they were interesting but she pointed me to this paper that analyzes the same NHANES data and comes to somewhat different conclusions. Like your post, the paper shows that obesity (or rather BMI) has increased since 2000 (Fig 7). However, unlike your post, the paper shows that carbohydrate consumption has been flat since 2000 (Fig 3). The paper attempts to adjust for age, race, residence, and some known upsampling in the dataset. From your comments it appears that you have adjusted for age, but it is unclear to me whether you adjusted for anything else. I was wondering if you had any ideas about the source of the discrepancy?<br /><br />http://www.nutritionjrnl.com/article/S0899-9007(15)00077-5/pdfintectushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02800276334754462599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-84284902892933091172015-12-31T10:58:52.741-08:002015-12-31T10:58:52.741-08:00JB thanks for a sensible and civilised contributio...JB thanks for a sensible and civilised contribution to the discussion thread - I have also enjoyed and benefited from following this discussion. I know Stephan is intelligent enough to appreciate the motive behind some of the challenges presented to him by people like Valerie (and me and others) and has done well to engage in a civilised dialogue - and, dare I say, hold his ground admirably. This is the nature of science and academia - you don't expect to present something and not be challenged. Sadly some of the followers lack the necessary education to appreciate this and take sides passionately and religiously (but not intellectually)! Happy new year to all. Let there be more interesting discussions like this in 2016.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10851580719016135716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-6932669740695257242015-12-30T20:22:42.544-08:002015-12-30T20:22:42.544-08:00Thank you al. I've enjoyed reading through thi...Thank you al. I've enjoyed reading through this thread? and I think I've learned from the discussion. I appreciated the quality and sincerity of the discussion. I especially appreciate the work of the initiator, Stephan, and those who made comments from a statistics perspective. I was trained in epidemiology but ended up working in the field of endangered species conservation and wildlife refuge management. Retired now and trying to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Cheers.<br />JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03742381248792419303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-41025657183787900682015-12-24T17:29:58.385-08:002015-12-24T17:29:58.385-08:00Hi Stephan,
Actually, I found your first justific...Hi Stephan,<br /><br />Actually, I found your first justification for the truncated y-axis better. You had written:<br /><br />"I didn't claim a large magnitude change in carbohydrate intake -- I only claimed that carb intake has declined while obesity has continued to increase."<br /><br />That is correct. The graph served to illustrate the direction of the trends, not their magnitudes. It is the magnitude of change that is notoriously easy to manipulate by changing the y-axis.valeriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05234169408257579073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-18476966072845574352015-12-24T13:40:58.189-08:002015-12-24T13:40:58.189-08:00Hi Folks,
I found this article that explains (mor...Hi Folks,<br /><br />I found this article that explains (more eloquently than I was able to) why it often makes sense to truncate the Y-axis.<br /><br />http://qz.com/418083/its-ok-not-to-start-your-y-axis-at-zero/<br /><br />The article explains clearly, using examples, why my way of presenting the data is not misleading.Stephan Guyenethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09218114625524777250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-3954090446046944822015-12-22T09:39:35.583-08:002015-12-22T09:39:35.583-08:00Hi Chris,
my comments to Stephan were meant as con...Hi Chris,<br />my comments to Stephan were meant as constructive criticism. I didn't mean to offend.<br /><br />By the way, data analysis is what I do for a living.valeriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05234169408257579073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-54653807108000892062015-12-20T07:31:25.569-08:002015-12-20T07:31:25.569-08:00I wish I had seen this post and comments sooner, b...I wish I had seen this post and comments sooner, but the audacity of some people never ceases to amaze me. Dr. Guyenet does all the research work, the analysis, creates the graphs, and kindly posts them for everyone to read -- free of charge. Then "Valerie" attempts to correct him with, "Let me illustrate the problem of using categorical variables…," as if he could not understand it. Then, "Costas" jumps on board her bandwagon. You two remind me of the "armchair quarterbacks" on Sunday afternoon, who never played the game nor coached in your life, yet second-guess every play the coaches call. If you were both so concerned that the graphs were "misleading," why didn't you go to the USDA ERS, gather all the data yourselves, plot the graphs, and then come back and provide a link to your "correct" graphs? I see that neither of you did that! If you had, just to get your goat, I might attack your use of BMI as an "inaccurate and misleading" graph that suggests BMI is an indicator of obesity. After all, I am 6'1" and 210 pounds, with a BMI of about 28, but I am 7% body fat. Maybe, just maybe, I'd start a discussion with you arguing that BMI doesn't reflect obesity… Maybe I'd suggest to both of you that much of the nation is now just bigger, with more muscle and less fat -- again, just because you can't seem to respect all of the knowledge and work that wen't into the graphs and the post. Nah… perhaps I shouldn't have wasted my time on this post, for the sake of two armchair quarterbacks.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15006337727827341681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-69417428429531596822015-12-04T12:16:13.199-08:002015-12-04T12:16:13.199-08:00http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/wheats-...http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/wheats-role-in-the-us-diet.aspxDoc Yeyohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15308448603574502583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-46430058145494428552015-12-04T10:57:29.739-08:002015-12-04T10:57:29.739-08:00You rock. Great examples. I am actually looking fo...You rock. Great examples. I am actually looking forward to my statistics course so I can understand this better and interpret data more scrupulously now. :)Fluxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00177693731048082647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-68992872749129407682015-12-03T08:44:52.370-08:002015-12-03T08:44:52.370-08:00In related (?) news, rate of increase in diabetes ...In related (?) news, rate of increase in diabetes in America has begun to slow down.<br /><br />"New Diabetes Cases, at Long Last, Begin to Fall in the United States!"<br />http://www.dietdoctor.com/new-diabetes-cases-at-long-last-begin-to-fall-in-the-united-states Tucker Goodrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09455436946187786398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-43695673631361229092015-12-03T06:21:16.726-08:002015-12-03T06:21:16.726-08:00Why is BMI even used as an obesity metric anymore?...Why is BMI even used as an obesity metric anymore? How can you declare some one obese without measuring their % body fat? Elisahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00573249613783644699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-83200682972663021972015-11-24T12:58:48.650-08:002015-11-24T12:58:48.650-08:00Indeed. We use categorical outcome variables all t...Indeed. We use categorical outcome variables all the time in epidemiology. Continuous variables are not always appropriate and results can be harder to interpret.Tom Jeannehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11830745967830134664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-46974236842312861192015-11-24T10:36:45.291-08:002015-11-24T10:36:45.291-08:00Hi Alex,
I repeat, the correlation between % obes...Hi Alex,<br /><br />I repeat, the correlation between % obesity and average BMI is greater than 0.99. In other words, obesity % is an excellent proxy for average BMI. Because of this, the categorical vs. continuous variable concern is a non-issue. Stephan Guyenethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09218114625524777250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-49446073153036265762015-11-23T17:15:18.371-08:002015-11-23T17:15:18.371-08:00Could the problem be that sugar has been replaced ...Could the problem be that sugar has been replaced by artificial sweeteners?Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02495168148670788029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-69412777380042038342015-11-23T16:55:57.607-08:002015-11-23T16:55:57.607-08:00After reading "Missing Microbes", I am ...After reading "Missing Microbes", I am aware that there may be something other than macronutrients to consider. <br /><br />kemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14800303740946401615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-72387921925228756862015-11-23T13:05:36.290-08:002015-11-23T13:05:36.290-08:00Good point, though of course we must not overinter...Good point, though of course we must not overinterpret and fall victim to the ecological fallacy; population-level trends cannot tell us much about what happens at the individual level. Also, one thing you have not addressed is epigenetic/transgenerational factors that a growing body of evidence suggests play a major role in obesity and chronic diseases. Paper from my old PI: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26522092Tom Jeannehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11830745967830134664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-20317584661545463012015-11-21T13:19:26.390-08:002015-11-21T13:19:26.390-08:00
Although the data looks good in print its highly ...<br />Although the data looks good in print its highly speculative that it’s an actuate assumption due to the fact that although carb and sugar consumption had went down, it’s still far too high for a healthy hormone balance or proper normal metabolic function .Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06998505184089500918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-91785938695048261982015-11-21T10:02:20.389-08:002015-11-21T10:02:20.389-08:00@George Henderson
Quite right -
The reduction ...@George Henderson <br /><br />Quite right - <br /><br />The reduction in carb intake to 470G/day is still a huge amount of carbs - no wonder people are still gaining. <br /><br />If you make the same graph with vegetable oils - the consumption which is STILL increasing you get a similar result. No one can say that we have evolved to eat these oils.<br /><br />There is another problem - the wheat/corn etc that people eat today has more PUFA than before. And the livestock that are now corn fed - has a quite different fat content than grass fed - including storage of unsaturated fatty acids that are prone to lipid peroxidation (even more so when blood glucose is elevated).<br /><br />There are really two problems - the obesity pandemic and the health effects of eating inflammation promoting foods (PUFAs and sugars). This inflammation is the likely driver of CAD not to mention a host of other diseases - including depression/Alzheimer's/macular degeneration/kidney/cancer etc etc etc... Causing a reduced quality of life is a bad thing IMO. People that did research on the health hazards of vegetable oils got their funding cut - carriers ruined.karlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490274388549702613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1629175743855013102.post-17024553036108142482015-11-21T04:02:16.596-08:002015-11-21T04:02:16.596-08:00Oh Steven. I did not see this with your graph at ...Oh Steven. I did not see this with your graph at first, but I do believe Valerie is correct. <br /><br />The problem is % obesity being a yes no question based on a value instead of seeing the average value over time. Let me try to illustrate. So by this measure, someone is obese if they are at 31 BMI or if they are at 50 BMI. They are not obese if they are at 29 BMI or 16 BMI. <br /><br />Let's pretend for a minute that back in the year 2000, the approximately 30% of obese individuals all were obese with a 55 BMI. Every single person who was obese was at a 55 BMI. Let's pretend in 2000 everyone who was not obese had a BMI of 29.... Every single person. Now let's look at now. <br /><br />Now let's imagine the current year. Let's pretend that of everyone who was obese they all had a BMI of 31... Every single person, but everyone who was not obese had a BMI of 19. Every single person. <br /><br />Now in this imaginary data world one can see by the population that the present year was not so bad. Every person who was obese was only obese by one point, but everyone who was not obese was significantly not obese. So as a population whole we were actually all loosing weight. It is because when the line is set at 30 and a yes no answer is taken you do not know how high the average yes is or how high the average no is. <br /><br />Average BMI of the population would be more telling over time for that reason... I do agree with you though...until you picture some extreme number examples in you head it can be hard to see why. If you were able to get your hands on average BMI data the chart may look the same or it may look completely different. <br /><br />This is why so many people say statistics lie :) Sometimes people can manipulate numbers in this way purposely to tell the story they want to tell... Even if it is a lie. (Not implying you are lying here, but that we don't know the real story because you do not have access to the right data). I imagine the chart may look similar anyway, but we do not know.<br /><br />Love reading your blog. Keep up the good work. And if you do get access to average BMI over time I'd love to see a new post. <br /><br />Hopefully this illustration was helpful.NMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07138432025628668358noreply@blogger.com